IT LOOKS like the end-game is approaching for Thus, the oddly named Scottish telecoms firm that has always struggled to get its achievements fully appreciated.
Last week it received an indicative takeover offer from Cable & Wireless which looked a tad opportunistic but will at least throw the spotlight on the progress made by Thus since it was spun out of ScottishPower in 1999.
While its rivals announce
profits warnings and struggle with stretched balance sheets, Thus has been growing both the top and bottom lines, is generating cash, and last month announced a maiden operating profit.
C&W is much the larger of the two, but it is the inferior performer and its approach to Thus is a recognition that the Glasgow company has made great strides in achieving its targets and, more to the point, is taking market share.
But despite its steady progress, Bill Allan, its combative chief executive, has experienced a tempestuous relationship with the City and, to a lesser extent, the media as both shared a degree of scepticism towards his growth story.
Inadvertently, C&W may have done Thus a favour by turning attention on the company's recent figures which were otherwise overshadowed by the credit and fuel crises that have dominated the headlines.
The board of Thus rejected C&W's offer, believed to be in the region of 160p a share, but the door is not firmly closed and supportive analysts believe a deal could be done at between 175p to 180p once the full extent of Thus's proposition is laid bare.
It will be little consolation for shareholders who have not seen Allan's promises fully reflected in the price. The shares are up 21% over the past month but are down 28% over five years, representing a poor return for the long-term investor.
However, should C&W come back with an improved offer it will allow Allan to showcase the progress that he feels the City has failed to reflect in the company's valuation. It has a much better network and margin growth than its would-be suitor, and while the acquisition of Energis has failed to live up to C&W's expectations, Your Communications has been effectively integrated into Thus.
All this means that when analysts come to crunch the numbers the board of Thus will be confident that its performance will outshine that of C&W. While it may not halt a takeover it should extract a higher price.
There is one other option yet to be declared: a move by Thus on one of the other telecoms firms to spoil C&W's ambitions. Colt is a possible target, along with KCom, formerly Kingston Communications, with which Thus tried to forge a merger some years ago.
Allan has always believed that the industry needs to consolidate and his hope that Thus would be a pursuer has not diminished. He tried to gatecrash the C&W-Energis merger talks with a late bid of his own. At the time he was ridiculed for his efforts, but the team of advisers he pulled together represented some of the City's finest who would not have wasted their time on some no-hope adventure.
Allan is determined to see Thus achieve greater things, but will not be afraid to face his former employer if C&W fancies its chances. To borrow the words of a Scottish Labour politician, he'll be urging C&W to "bring it on". Ultimately, the shareholders in Thus may benefit from remaining patient for a little while longer.
Swinney right to keep financial status quoFINANCE minister John Swinney announced last week that an independent Scotland could retain the current UK regulatory system for the financial services industry, though the advantages of a unitary regime means it is surely a no-brainer in what is, after all, an increasingly globalised industry.
An independent Scotland would have to sign a series of bilateral agreements with Westminster, not only because of the cost of going it alone, but in order to maintain stability in the money markets. Regulation is one such area that requires that nothing further be done other than to sign the papers.
The arguments over independence may one day determine Scotland's political status, but the financial world operates at a transnational level. Rules emerge from Brussels and Basel as often as from London and New York and embrace every player. For Edinburgh to throw in its two pennyworth would be a parochial anomaly that Swinney is wise to acknowledge.
The full article contains 763 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.