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Sage of HBOS predicts trouble at Deutsche Bank



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Published Date: 30 November 2008
COLIN McLean, the feted fund manager who sounded the alarm over HBOS a year before its demise, believes that Deutsche Bank will be next in line for a Government bailout.
The managing director of Edinburgh-based SVM Asset Management has warned that the German bank, one of the biggest employers in the City of London with 7,000 staff, still has high exposure to risky assets such as credit default swaps (CDS) which preci
pitated the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September.

He expects Deutsche will be one of four banks across Europe that will be forced to go cap in hand to taxpayers over the next 12 months as the continuing fall-out from the credit crisis limps on well into the New Year.

"The overall risks in a number of major European and US banks are still quite high," he told Scotland on Sunday. "There's been more coverage on Citigroup but there are at least four European banks which have got very big balance sheets with quite a high exposure to the CDS and other derivatives that triggered the present crisis. At the moment there doesn't seem to be a lot of recognition that a bank such as Deutsche Bank has got some similar problems."

McLean declined to name the other banks in further trouble, but hinted Barclays might be among their number even though shareholders voted through its latest £7bn fundraising last week.

"Of the major banks across Europe that have not so far gone for significant liquidity and equity support (from European governments], it will be surprising if they prove to be much better managed or more adroit at avoiding the problems than those that already have," he said.

McLean last week made his first investments in the banking sector for over a year, backing HSBC and Lloyds TSB, despite his pessimism over selected institutions. He said HSBC has avoided many of the riskier lending areas that have damaged other banks. Although it may be forced to raise further equity, he expects it to prove a safer bet in the medium-term.

SVM is forecasting that Lloyds should be in a position to resume dividend payouts after a year. "It may quite reasonably be a healthy market for some of these banks by 2010," McLean said. "They should be able to restore profits."

McLean is one of two high profile fund managers to have returned to assets currently shunned by most other investors. It was revealed earlier this month that John Paulson, the American hedge fund manager who increased returns sixfold by betting against sub-prime mortgages before the rest of the market realised the extent of the problems, has started buying debt backed by home loans.



The full article contains 458 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 02 December 2008 1:44 PM
  • Source: Scotland On Sunday
  • Location: Scotland
 
 

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