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The economy: If he can't deliver we will all pay the price



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Published Date: 09 November 2008
ALREADY some Republican minds are stretching to the Barack Obama re-election campaign of 2012. Badges are being designed. One says: "No, we couldn't". The rest of the world has to hope that is a bad joke.
Obama faces the worst economic crisis since Franklin D Roosevelt became president in 1932 in the midst of the Great Depression, when American unemployment hit 25%. If recession now is not to turn into another depression, the world needs Obama 2012 ba
dges to say: "Yes, we could, and we did."

Fixing the economy is what America's voters most want from Obama. It far outstripped worries about Iraq, Afghanistan and other concerns in pollsters' surveys. And even as his victory tally climbed, so did the bad news. Figures revealed in October 240,000 Americans lost their jobs, pushing unemployment up to 6.5%. Detroit's carmakers, faced with sales down 32%, announced long winter shutdowns and went to Washington to beg for $50bn (£31bn) aid.

The International Monetary Fund revised its economic forecasts downwards, projecting the first contraction in the developed world's economies for half a century, with a 0.7% reduction in the US economy and a worse 1.3% decline in the UK. "It's not going to be quick and it's not going to be easy to dig ourselves out of the hole we are in," said the President-elect, acknowledging that the road to economic recovery is arduous. "But America is a strong and resilient country and I know that we will succeed if we put aside partisanship and politics to work together."

This isn't just political rhetoric. The moneyed rest of the world seems to agree for, despite America's Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to just 1%, the US dollar has steadily strengthened, indicating that others think the US is a safer bet for storing wealth than many other countries.

This is one shaft of brightness in an otherwise bleak outlook. The recipe for restoring economic health begins with where all the problems sprang from – the financial system. Though official interest rates have been brought just about as low as they can get, real interest rates charged to companies and individuals remain high as banks shy away from risk and try to restore their capital. The threat of further financial turmoil from recession-induced defaults on personal and corporate loans, which may feed through into the billions of derivatives built on these debts, just as sub-prime mortgage defaults corroded mortgage securities, is high. Obama may have to extend treasury secretary Henry Paulson's $700bn (£447bn) bail-out package.

To reduce the impact of recession, there is now general agreement that there will have to be a federal spending package of at least $150bn (£96bn) to provide an economic stimulus. Some think even that is too little and $500bn (£320bn) is needed to have a real impact. Then there is the question of fulfilling Obama's election pledges, chief among them his plan for a better federally funded health care system which may cost about £160bn (£102bn) a year.

That adds up to a whopping excess of spending over tax revenues, also falling because of recession, pushing this year's federal deficit of $450bn (£287bn) to probably $1,000bn (£639bn) next year and shoving America's national debt, which passed $10,000bn (£6,391bn) during the election campaign, higher still.

The offsets Obama has to mitigate this are pitifully small. A tax increase on the richest 5% of Americans is already spent on tax cuts for everyone else, and troop withdrawal from Iraq saves only about $80bn a year. So he is going to have to spend big and run up huge debts. The trick of restoring growth is to persuade people he also has a plan for eventually cutting that spending and the debt.

This trick was managed – on a much lesser scale – by Bill Clinton in 1992. It matters because America's ability to spend its way out of recession depends on foreigners' willingness to finance US debts, essentially by buying dollars and big chunks of the economy.

This matters to us for, just as the financial crisis began in the US, so the cure has to begin to work over there. Much though Gordon Brown would like to be able to produce a British solution to British problems, he can't do it without America's problems being solved. Does he think Obama can? You bet he prays he can.





The full article contains 747 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 08 November 2008 8:33 PM
  • Source: Scotland On Sunday
  • Location: Scotland
  • Related Topics: Barack Obama , US elections
 
1

Postmark-55,

China, 09/11/2008 01:20:15
Pull your troops out of Afghanistan and Iraq and you've taken the biggest and most important step towards financial recovery and at the same time you'll win over world opinion as well. Everything else will follow suit.
2

2dogs in D.C.,

09/11/2008 02:10:17
Well, that might save a few gadzillion dollars,but then what?
3

Postmark-55,

China, 09/11/2008 02:37:45
#2 2dogs in D.C.,
If you win over world opinion you will also win over world trust and that in itself will do a lot to get the economy kick started again since the world is so closely linked together now.
4

Tatties ower the side,

Johannesburg 09/11/2008 04:20:39
#1&3 You know, Postie, appeasement isn't the answer. It did not work for the Clinton administration and it won't work for Obama either.

I bet the radicals are just licking their lips.

5

2dogs in D.C.,

09/11/2008 05:24:15
#4-Tatties-Which radicals would that be?
6

Lynne,

Palm Beach Gardens 09/11/2008 14:07:46
2 dogs

The same ones who have already sent him warnings.. Hezbollah, the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and Hamas and Iran, and Syria
7

,

09/11/2008 15:58:02
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
8

2dogs in D.C.,

09/11/2008 17:26:00
Hi Lynne, glad to see you have not abandoned this site.I guess what I was inferring,was there's radicals on all sides.Who's right and who's wrong depends on your point of view.
9

Tatties ower the side,

Johannesburg 09/11/2008 17:31:57
#5 2Dogs

The same radicals that crashed an American aeroplane into the Pentagon, you bozo! Did you not hear the noise?

#7 Dropsie

That is such nonsense. The German government of the time tried to kill my father, my mother and all my family. Do I strap bombs to my children and send them to blow up an office block in Hamburg out of sheer hatred? Of course not!!! I think you need to look for some other reason for this radical Muslim loathing of the West!
10

2dogs in D.C.,

09/11/2008 17:48:25
Well,that certainly put me in my place-Bozo. If you can't hold a conversation without resorting to juvenile insults....
11

Tatties ower the side,

Johannesburg 09/11/2008 18:01:11
#10 2 Dogs.

Ahhh.. if it is conversation you want......

What is your take on the shift to the Democrats? I am just concerned that if we revert to the appeasement policies of the Clinton administration we will just encourage the radical Muslim terrorists. And it is just not in the US that they strike. We have seen our share of flying glass in Africa as well!!!

PS Sorry I called you a bozo!!!
12

2dogs in D.C.,

09/11/2008 18:53:16
No,no Tatties,not at all-It's just I'm used to being called much worse by my friends.My take towards the Democrats?Well, the other side had its turn,and you can see what happened there. Let's give this side a shot,if it dont work,theres always the vote.
13

2dogs in D.C.,

09/11/2008 19:04:23
Also,Clinton was Clinton.Obama is Obama.What happens has yet to happen.Can't second guess what's not happened.
14

Lynne,

Palm Beach Gardens 10/11/2008 00:29:22
Hi 2 dogs, I haven't abandoned these posts.. but I was busy with work, Thurs and Fri. and sometimes , when I read the same drivel from the Anti-Israelis it just doesn't pay to answer.. because the truth still eludes them.. even thought they have been shown it time and time again. That is why Scotsman doesn't even have comments open any more on those posts. Those posts get so heated and insulting, that it is just not worth the time and effort.

As to Obama, I said I am giving him a chance to see what he can do.. Everyone should, for better or worse, he is the next president. But, people shouldn't think he is a superman. Our economy will take years to fix.. and both sides had a lot to do with that. One side more than others.., I digress.
But these loans and bailouts won't just be affecting you and me and our grandchildren.. it will also include our great grandchildren.

And with his "tax cuts" included, where is the money coming from? You can't do both, stimulous packages and bailouts, AND tax cuts.

15

,

10/11/2008 03:01:50
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
16

Lynne,

Palm Beach Gardens 10/11/2008 04:19:11
Barb B, I am an American, I live in America... if you took the time to read... maybe you would comprehend.
I voted on election day.. maybe not for your guy.. but we will see what Obama can do, will do, and how much he sticks to his promises.
Your are rude and I doubt you say you are who you are.. but ptobably just another troll, from the FH site. Why don't you go back to where you belong?
And don't forget.. America allows you to criticize.. otherwise we could be like Venezuela and Iran. If you prefer, maybe you could move to either of those 2 countries. Then YOU will be right at home.
17

Let's have the truth,

Queensland 10/11/2008 11:10:55
Sarah Palin:

This is the sort of woman some of you wanted as vice president:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/sarahpalin/3405336/Sarah-Palin-blamed-by-the-US-Secret-Service-for-death-threats-against-Barack-Obama.html
18

,

10/11/2008 14:38:31
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:

 

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