The late Richard Ratner, the venerable retail analyst at Seymour Pierce, famously declared that last year would be the worst Christmas for 25 years. He turned out to be wrong.

Two years ago many analysts were forecasting the worst Christmas in years. In fact, sales were up 6.2%. This year, we have store managers talking up their prospects, and analysts talking them down. So who's right?

A number of store managers talk of high footfall, which means plenty of people are crowding the shops, but it does not necessarily mean they are opening their wallets.

That said, November proved to be a better month than was expected, though it will be early next month before the picture becomes clear. Early indications are that a mix of discounting and online sales are emerging as the key trends for 2007.

Many stores have been enticing shoppers with price cuts, and to offset the shift towards the internet most of the big-name high street stores now also have an online service. The marriage of Marks & Spencer with Amazon technology is an example of how retail has gone multi-platform, to use the jargon.

Recent evidence also suggests people are leaving their Christmas shopping later and later, which is adding to the difficulty of making accurate predictions.

With one shopping day left this year, forecasters are already looking ahead to Christmas 2008 and are predicting tough times on the high street. They could be right. But then again…

Going Forth in a brave new transport world?

THE other day a man dressed as a pirate (reason unclear) sat on a train on the London Underground trying to persuade commuters to join him in a chorus of "If you're happy and you know it clap your hands".

Everybody ignored him. Probably because he was irritating, but also because they didn't feel happy while struggling for space to breathe, let alone clap their hands.

During a recent rail trip from Ayrshire into Glasgow Central, a fellow standing passenger asked the regular (and quite legitimate) question why First ScotRail doesn't provide enough seats for everyone who wants to travel. He then commented on how vulnerable he felt in the event of an accident.

Ironically, the recorded message greeting commuters reminded them to read the safety notices. A fat lot of good that would be if the train pulled up sharply. Those of us standing (getting on for a third of the total) would be thrown about like peas in a biscuit tin.

London's City Airport offered another reminder of how difficult it can be trying to get about the country. A scheduled (is there such a thing?) British Airways flight to Glasgow was delayed because the ground staff had put the catering trollies on the wrong plane. Frustrated passengers, who had already endured the cattle market that passes for a lounge, were "thanked for their patience" (refusal to be provoked into a fight) while apologies (excuses) were offered for any (lots of) inconvenience caused (we've screwed up the rest of your day, but you'll get over it).

This, by the way, is the "competitive alternative" to the BAA monopoly. Don't for a minute believe that breaking up the airports would improve efficiency.

Now we learn there is to be a new road bridge across the Forth. Hallelujah! It would be nice to think it was the beginning of a new, enlightened approach to transport as we approach the end of the first decade of the 21st century.

Somehow, I think not.

Fisher's Celtic stake – what's his game?

GAP Clothing heir John J Fisher has prompted more speculation at Celtic Football Club after he paid £503,000 for a 3.24% stake via tightly-held convertible preferred ordinary shares.

There is no indication that 37.9% holder Dermot Desmond is preparing to walk away and hand over the keys to the American billionaire.

But Fisher could be a vital cog if Parkhead replicated his plans to build "ballpark villages" around a new Oakland Athletic baseball stadium and the San Jose Earthquakes soccer club he owns with business partner Lew Wolff.

American investors are showing keen interest in British football – Manchester United, Liverpool and Aston Villa are already under US control – and the prospect of a lucrative new European league is said to be a factor driving their involvement.

Celtic and Rangers often moan about having no access to BSkyB's millions, but with two billionaires now on the Parkhead shares register the club could not be better placed to find all the cash it needs.