AFRICAN leaders are facing perhaps the biggest test of their continent's post-independence history when they meet tomorrow to discuss Zimbabwe's farcical run-off election in which Robert Mugabe proclaimed himself State President for another five-year term.
Now is the moment for the continent-wide African Union (AU) and the sub-regional 14-member Southern African Development Community (SADC) to try to save some face from the disaster into which Mugabe has plunged Africa.
To get re-elected in a co
ntest in which he was the only candidate, Mugabe launched a reign of terror on his own people. Zimbabweans were beaten on the streets, women were raped and had limbs and breasts cut off before they were burned alive, whole communities were abducted and citizens were ordered into polling booths at gunpoint last Friday to vote for their dictator. As handfuls of people trickled into the booths, another seven mutilated bodies of murdered opposition activists were found in the Harare suburb of Epworth.
It has long been clear that Mugabe and his generals were determined not to surrender to the people's choice, the Movement for Democratic Change's Morgan Tsvangirai – but the scale of the organised savagery has been shockingly obscene.
The pressure is on Africa's leaders, gathering this weekend for their annual summit at the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm El Sheikh, to repudiate Robert Mugabe publicly by refusing to acknowledge him as head of state.
However, Mugabe will dare his fellow leaders to damn him, asking how many have hands any cleaner than his and pointing out that he is "newly elected" whereas many of them, such as President Eduardo dos Santos of Angola and King Mswati of Swaziland, have not faced an election for decades, while the entire war-torn Horn of Africa is a no-go area for democracy.
Even when Mugabe began saying openly, after the first round of presidential voting on March 29, that he was willing to go to war to prevent a Tsvangirai victory, the AU and SADC leaders did nothing. They waited for their officially appointed mediator, South African President Thabo Mbeki, to solve the Zimbabwe crisis with his "quiet diplomacy", which critics say has amounted to mere appeasement of Mugabe. Even when the MDC became exasperated with Mbeki's ineffectiveness and severed relations with him, they still did nothing.
Mugabe cares nothing for what the United Nations, Britain or the European Union say about him, or whether the Queen strips him of a useless knighthood. But it is just possible that disapproval from his African peers might move even Mugabe's wooden heart a little.
"It is time for the AU and SADC to stop pussyfooting around this issue," argues Allister Sparks, veteran analyst of southern Africa and former editor of the liberal Rand Daily Mail.
"Their whole credibility is at stake. Both, after all, are bound by their own charters not to recognise any regime that comes to power unconstitutionally – which is exactly what the Mugabe regime is doing now."
Even though voting was heavily rigged in his favour, Mugabe lost the March 29 first-round presidential poll to Tsvangirai, obtaining only 43.2% of the national votes cast to the 47.9% of his rival. Tsvangirai needed an absolute majority of at least 50% plus one vote to avoid a run-off election. The MDC said its figures showed he had won that majority and that, strictly speaking, he should by now have been installed as Zimbabwe's head of state and have begun the task of reconstructing a country that Mugabe and his military junta have destroyed.
Mugabe's top military and security chiefs took over the ruling Zanu-PF party's presidential run-off campaign, organising it like a war. Zimbabweans were warned of violent repercussions if they failed to vote in last Friday's second-round ballot.
With more than 100 of his followers dead, some 4,000 hospitalised and an estimated 200,000 made homeless, Tsvangirai decided early last week to withdraw from the presidential race to save his supporters any more suffering. Many welcomed the move in the hope of gaining relief from the assaults of Mugabe's police, soldiers and militias.
Others were furious, asking why their relatives and friends had wasted their lives to support Tsvangirai's "fight for the crown". The MDC leader fled to the comfort and safety of the Dutch Embassy, while outside his rank-and-file supporters bore the wrath of the regime.
The government assault has been particularly brutal in rural areas where a poorly educated peasant population is in thrall to tribal chiefs who have been bribed and threatened by police, army officers and ruling party officials into instructing people to vote for Mugabe.
Because of the terror campaign there has been a huge exodus of people into exile in neighbouring countries and from the countryside into the towns. "All have been driven out by fear, most have been beaten," said a spokesman of a non-governmental organisation in Zimbabwe. "The hospitals are overflowing, there are not enough doctors and staff. Many of the mission station hospitals have been threatened into submission and no longer take torture victims."
The country's top human rights lawyer, Beatrice Mtetwa, said: "We've had murders, torture and arson on a scale that is unbelievable for such a short space of time." She said the known death toll far underestimated the true scale of the slaughter, with bodies lying in the bush or unclaimed in mortuaries. "Things are bad now, but if Mugabe does claim victory (following Friday's run-off] I fear it will be literally the end of life as we know it," said Mtetwa. "It is a tragedy that such a beautiful country has been reduced to this."
Friday's election was one of the most surreal events ever witnessed in Africa, with many who cast ballots in the uncontested race saying they had been forced to do so. Zanu-PF party officials were stationed near each polling place to track who was voting, and for whom.
One man in Harare who refused to vote summed up the disillusion, anger and fear: "The hope of change offered by the March 29 presidential election has been ruthlessly and systematically crushed, and all that remains is the stains of our butchered dreams."
Tension has been typically high in the dormitory town of Chitungwiza, 20 miles south of the capital Harare, as members of Mugabe's youth militias terrorised the people.
"We would have expected the violence to end immediately after Tsvangirai's move (dropping out from the run-off], but the opposite is happening," said local resident Abel Marufu.
"I think Mugabe is just sneering at the world and telling it that, whatever it thinks about him, he will not be swayed from his chosen path."
As the violence continues in Zimbabwe, perhaps escalating into civil war, another wave of refugees will flee into neighbouring countries.
In South Africa, widespread ethnic cleansing last month of black African migrants showed that society's ability to absorb more refugees had reached saturation point.
There are already an estimated three million Zimbabweans in South Africa, a quarter of the pre-2000 Zimbabwe population. Forecasts say another two million will soon arrive in the wake of the election.
"We simply cannot cope with that," said Allister Sparks.
"It would mean a major destabilisation of our society, with devastating effects on our national image and on our economy."
Bush calls for greater sanctions against ZimbabwePRESIDENT Bush stepped up the pressure on Zimbabwean leader Robert Mugabe last night by ordering top officials to set up fresh sanctions on his beleaguered country.
Bush said he was seeking new sanctions against an "illegitimate" government following widespread claims of intimidation of voters in Friday's presidential run-off.
"Given the Mugabe regime's blatant disregard for the Zimbabwean people's democratic will and human rights, I am instructing the Secretaries of State and Treasury to develop sanctions against this illegitimate government of Zimbabwe and those who support it," Bush said. He is also to press for United Nations action, including an arms embargo.
Early indications from Zimbabwean election officials yesterday were that tallies from two-thirds of polling stations showed Mugabe, 84, defeating opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai by a huge margin.
The final result is expected today, with Mugabe being sworn in as president before departing for a crucial meeting of neighbouring African leaders in Egypt tomorrow.
Reports emerged yesterday from official observers of widespread intimidation of voters to force them to the polling booths. Observers said turnout had been "low", although state media said "record numbers" had cast their votes.
Tsvangirai, who won the initial vote on March 29 but not by a big enough margin to triumph outright, pulled out of the run-off last Sunday, claiming the level of violence aimed at his supporters was too high a price to pay.
MDC spokesman Nelson Chamisa said yesterday that Mugabe's ZANU-PF planned to continue a violent crackdown: "They stole this election, now they are going to spill more blood."
He said security forces planned to launch 'Operation Red Finger' to track down people who had abstained; voters had a finger dyed with ink.
Meanwhile, African foreign ministers meeting in Sharm-el-Sheik yesterday said further international sanctions would not help to resolve Zimbabwe's crisis. Instead, leaders should push for Mugabe and the opposition to talk to each other.
Many western leaders urged the African Union to take action at its summit, saying the turmoil and economic meltdown in Zimbabwe threatened regional security.
The MDC said it would lobby the summit leaders. "The summit has to take a firm position," Chamisa said. "We should not wait for rivers of blood and the complete breakdown of order."
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